Bitcoin Mining Calculator CoinWarz

To address concerns about my identity

Doubts about my identity seem to crop up, so I like to address all those once more. Hopefully in a comprehensive way.
First of all, to explain the situation from my article again, originstamp.org is my go-to service. Usually, 24h is plenty and suffices to timestamp everything.
But in this case, Core went quickly ahead with release information, which made the 24h window (due to fees) too small to conclusively prove ownership on the BTC chain.
But let's have a look in detail. This is the text that I wrote:
BitcoinABC does not check for duplicate inputs when processing a block, only when inserting a transaction into the mempool. This is dangerous as blocks can be generated with duplicate transactions and then sent through e.g. compact block missing transactions and avoid hitting the mempool, creating money out of thin air. awemany 
If you SHA256 this, it calculates to: 5c45a1ba957362a2ba97c9f8c48d4d59d4fa990945b7094a8d2a98c3a91ed9b6
Exhibit A: I timestamped that here: https://originstamp.org/s/5c45a1ba957362a2ba97c9f8c48d4d59d4fa990945b7094a8d2a98c3a91ed9b6
Note that there is a timestamp when it entered their system, which is before anything else became public and which is:
17.9.2018, 14:54:19 CEST
It shows it in your local time zone in your browser, a fact that Peter Todd apparently tripped over as well: https://archive.fo/W1gdf
Scroll down to "Submission to OriginStamp" at the end.
This timestamp is, however, just from their service and thus centralized. But if you think I faked that, that would mean that I must have hacked their service in time to do so. In the last few days. Furthermore, the window for this hack would be quite small, as there is also a later submission into the blockchain. So if you doubt this information alone, it would mean I'd had to hack the service in time (within a few hours window) just to claim this identity, leave no trace of all of this, face the risk of being called out by the true finder of the bug (who'd be different then) and write this long article ...
But there's more:
Exhibit B: For anyone who is a member of the BU slack, I posted a message that was the above hash (as I said in my medium article) and which is still sitting unedited on the slack as well, in the #general channel. There are likely several hundred members of this slack, and all of them who read it should have seen this message in time. I believe there are also (well-behaved) Core supporters in there. I would need to have hacked that service in an undetected way as well and fool or collude with all active members therein as well. That now creates a pretty big collusion, don't you think?
Exhibit C: Finally, let me close with this PGP signed message. I created a PGP key just to keep my identity separate, at least for a while, from my main pseudonym awemany. And in the email I send out to the developers, I have added myself as a recipient. Even though the message has not been signed (I didn't see any reason to do so at the time of release), my full key id is still in this message. And that is, as far as I know, a 128-bit hash for which it is practically impossible to find a preimage for. This explicit 'encrypt-to-self' is because I fucked up with PGP encryption in the past (because, as I say in my article, mistakes just happen) and I wanted to at least be able to read my own encrypted message later. I have created sitations for myself where I wasn't able to read my own encrypted emails. Yes, call me a crypto noob, say PEBKAC or whatever, it is exactly an example of why I am saying that I am not perfect but so is no one else!
Here is this message, which I am sure anyone owning the original disclosure email is happy for you to confirm that it is the same key id:
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA512 This messsage is signed by the beardnboobies GPG key that I created just in time for the vulnerability disclosure. In reality, I am awemany on reddit and elsewhere. -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- iQGzBAEBCgAdFiEERGszUXtt2s3Wfkt1yydp8d93NcQFAlumBkAACgkQyydp8d93 NcQvegwAmcfqKSp/RZVE6HIyN9gbxa5oz2YFaaoeVCoQTsDZPX08zjBjp7jzMUGW izraVk+yOz8Yxdv7re8G+CBqnpgfpNvMoHPe75bgoyKzavTtukVSScDUHZ9Tu9D7 xQcfWnwZhsUjsTsxFD7B6PLAWzeh7cA3d0xUwrFJoa//hlOylnlC/76cbBspqSll ispvQgBcEM6NfKvmCTb9LItts2/QrXX891LK9I4vPC1WpOrXPA9lNnuuP8/S/ey9 O7iqwW+oCwGKLELQJE58hgwt7keQukrPEfwUtBXACW77gtk1dXaxRL5RqCkmMsMn rBMkTGmjDit+AVE/5oW+flds8/Hq+kQDXUZfaLbnOrleW50LTTi+etA/PPhHxe45 CUD7Jm8d2LbTIjFWsZT/Rq2Djsy3gBcHeKqFMRXEBI7WoFe431q38gVSyfvbCrPR R4AJsg2eGgysu0E/SZecHHULc4CU6RdLmCRrORRSv1T9tOyJcRpfwRlE4FnT9LTC /+5v9mXI =k2oE -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- 
And here is the public key which matches that key Id and which has likewise not been made public yet:
-----BEGIN PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK----- mQGNBFufufgBDADJ3N5xocCOSyRrF42nvrujUZXRPnaq+X3E0GjNlCwuCFZELNE9 l950cR4l+sNFbjcvWtlCgAdHPAggED3ZeutTO3fAIClN+LOgnyEF4txjdG72j9L4 NnCVMfKhT2yc7JZQh3lS+GHFSBS8joLq09GxllTORvdawuW34yzV4rzFZZ3NfK+/ 8BtNAf+nXvtafugw4Nlln5LPvGna9bmh/74RlZTAJeV52a/WsucBQ7kVuWTAERMy N+DuvUIxh7gG9KbSQXsPQ+1ZleO9+nWJs4pgX3ro6ZRMYvN9jeJsDjx2uQoL77zM RwMKNis5ifxnkHmExOG01SQxz3j9tw1anC8dFi2zs9jlr+qjUofSUT0RctKNJlga BgDV1dsu8dg11xxo4slH93D5LqJJs3lg+RjxHeWE6Oxvpz4SQpU+sLT4T73xOh/d GDw4UmLMUgKjjlYexVhlNk6FUamAkpYzuTgN35AeUt1iGj9D9XAbbi0G3MjKYSX6 tPkBC5h7XIGDzGcAEQEAAbQuQmVhcmQnbidib29iaWVzIDxiZWFyZG5ib29iaWVz QHByb3Rvbm1haWwuY29tPokB1AQTAQoAPhYhBERrM1F7bdrN1n5LdcsnafHfdzXE BQJbn7n4AhsDBQkDwmcABQsJCAcCBhUKCQgLAgQWAgMBAh4BAheAAAoJEMsnafHf dzXEi0gMAL0StgXSH4mbHPeyj0pJOmzOpEsfm7S05EKoGnMzmB/ZfCxag9YvDSSQ Jz28jOmPIrnLLkuOFcf0BnSKmys2WbEpGm5SgRU0anSTiiaTy2RjPa8eC34F6X/q LjgJ6J4hvOoDkQAjOzfspayRjRmFewNzssMHn6JC2NWvP+8+nClsJA959E9rxJ5F xaPmPZ9g4AJFah/vpRXbv44JQGbjr42CdB2JUTYW3rd7WjYFdcGcPU0UQhRQSflL 2ZOCw8bJCdPRRXpy2xTewTPE4eVcrclvmbKDhDbDNkY9cqDSPqag2JG8GoPsl3Ym 33uwzN1Y5qkocfGoVxr3eEEFQgkPnqX27OyGAL1+MoEOYuLuhUaNX2E/WmPZwtU3 E5JdjdIRfVfzI+oWs6Mfn1mbxeePBikjHgNgr4vs2+DkujeenS8UsD5Y6qrk9Ypt Erh5GRT0BauSSV52U3mEboMyxRHriObFT+BQAK0cJ4ZZ9aAUVLZcC4TXps2PKcjZ ozJYgvFm1rkBjQRbn7n4AQwAx7JiWJSuwAidK0AcPS2kt5gpzsESgxq1qyoeELYg tNb6G2SihbFj4hVMjc8Ol+a0wtcd+3D7Wcyu5EDbfnIydfmytIvF6CABWCkKtulG lxKSydMg16QGMwWixqTLRo1FoCdAzvKJktTshIlARoRt1cII/5n0C+Ny33kdm809 c+5EPFW22Hu5cNZR6xjYkONoM+Gw9JVIo5O9DY1l2s7qaQhnnTQDMBJLZjtOVFZF l/QQjnM5SJZr7lkzNMOgdA3saCbjk7NVMnV8ledLHYZguR3lDfsfdwWvw9Q3tEp9 Ii5P3AHzzV7eu0g6T7xpjV4LNssP1abvrBBd/RFfA6A3ec9wXEWTk2ewXpZLkicm 9VBy3nsz5bedoAvcyTVB0HF80yHbo99eSwEUenlrs0K0Yv97hxJ2ioPrhx4y7M9Q XRWRXFRaLBgLT5GxvIs9jRWJq7jwtKknA7GSun06UFKnOmiT81dmVf4Dne1F9y/R U7ld9Doo7IARUYP11/twEh5HABEBAAGJAbwEGAEKACYWIQREazNRe23azdZ+S3XL J2nx33c1xAUCW5+5+AIbDAUJA8JnAAAKCRDLJ2nx33c1xMiGDACbqHLuXMZ2937O aDfuchIYJ7BoqLiY+Po0V78jenYcx4pXXnau2rL44f02B6nV5RK21b+PwFDX+SMh usQfAYdBBRxIb0uDePKx2/Vb0UC5yb456eprYBXOIN7odl0J68PpjUQik5kqizig n/vyrIMMQehnFFee88xdSUYK495I6URJtIp6YLCYoalFs49l3szLJZK57OcCmfsR gzQbBIsPqQ7uqKZlGYZY9a/PYEZd3Lb6qLF693jZyNjDZ8IIfBjvJa3ZwJiTtNXi NknfmW2KcokFljOa5Fvs6Gu11Q9KpbVRpkKeHF79TSN5lPSwvBjsBbx9j4KoFBum yNNQTclRMe+AWHfcnoIXooFemiv27n6HEwoFEyoKm3ita1V+RiDuZ1e3FEA4zUPO XlZv6e7p+Cd0coP4FDWR5mq1ck+SOFoFuqNrqpEIumrHEC4wKcIA7iy/jJ5frgab UjEcFa/MBAaZ7If9+3kHh2kpfPwLOT+7Mm7i9kD1Yu3UBvwoYOE= =DyTh -----END PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK----- 
I am not going to disclose the original email just yet, because there is exploit code in there. Even though I think that exploit code is quite simple and will likely not do harm, there is no reason to add more risk and this could also still be used against me by trolls by being called irresponsible. So I hope folks understand why I refrain from that for now.
submitted by awemany to btc [link] [comments]

New people please read this. [upvote for visibility please]

I am seeing too many new people come and and getting confused. Litecoin wiki isn't the greatest when it comes to summing up things so I will try to do things as best as I can. I will attempt to explain from what I have learned and answer some questions. Hopefully people smarter than me will also chime in. I will keep this post updated as much as I can.
Preface
Litecoin is a type to electronic currency. It is just like Bitcoin but it there are differences. Difference explained here.
If you are starting to mine now chances are that you have missed the Bitcoin mining train. If you really want your time and processing power to not go to waste you should mine LTC because the access to BTC from there is much easier.
Mining. What is it?
Let's get this straight. When making any financial commitment to this be prepared to do it with "throw away" money. Mining is all about the hashrate and is measured in KH/s (KiloHash/sec). Unlike the powerful ASICs (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) that are used to mine bitcoins using hashrates in the GH/s and even TH/s, litecoin mining has only been able to achieve at the very best MH/s. I think the highest I've seen is 130 MH/s so far. Which leads us to our next section.
Mining Hardware
While CPU mining is still a thing it is not as powerful as GPU mining. Your laptop might be able to get 1 a month. However, I encourage you to consult this list first. List of hardware comparison You will find the highest of processors can maybe pull 100 KH/s and if we put this into a litecoin mining calculator it doesn't give us much.
Another reason why you don't want to mine with your CPU is pretty simple. You are going to destroy it.
So this leaves us with GPUs. Over the past few months (and years) the HD 7950 has been the favourite because it drains less power and has a pretty good hashrate. But recently the introduction of the R9 290 (not the x) has changed the game a bit. People are getting 850 KH/s - 900 KH/s with that card. It's crazy.
Should I mine?
Honestly given the current difficulty you can make a solid rig for about $1100 with a hashrate of 1700 KH/s which would give you your investment back in about a month and a half. I am sure people out there can create something for much cheaper. Here is a good example of a setup as suggested by dystopiats
PCPartPicker part list / Price breakdown by merchant / Benchmarks
Type Item Price
CPU AMD Sempron 145 2.8GHz Single-Core Processor $36.01 @ Amazon
Motherboard ASRock 970 EXTREME4 ATX AM3+ Motherboard $99.48 @ OutletPC
Memory Crucial Ballistix Tactical Tracer 4GB (1 x 4GB) DDR3-1866 Memory $59.99 @ Newegg
Video Card Sapphire Radeon HD 7950 3GB Video Card (3-Way CrossFire) $245.38 @ Newegg
Video Card Sapphire Radeon HD 7950 3GB Video Card (3-Way CrossFire) $245.38 @ Newegg
Video Card Sapphire Radeon HD 7950 3GB Video Card (3-Way CrossFire) $245.38 @ Newegg
Power Supply SeaSonic Platinum 860W 80+ Platinum Certified Fully-Modular ATX Power Supply $146.98 @ SuperBiiz
Total
Prices include shipping, taxes, and discounts when available. $1078.60
Generated by PCPartPicker 2013-11-29 00:52 EST-0500
Estimated Hashrate (with GPU overclocking) : 1900 KH/s
Hardware Fundamentals
CPU - Do you need a powerful CPU? No but make sure it is a decent one. AMD CPUs are cheap to buy right now with tons of power. Feel free to use a Sempron or Celeron depending on what Motherboard you go with.
RAM - Try to get at least 4 GB so as to not run into any trouble. Memory is cheap these days. I am saying 4 GB only because of Windoze. If you are plan to run this on Linux you can even get away with less memory.
HDD Any good ol 7200 RPM hard drive will do. Make sure it is appropriate. No point in buying a 1TB hard drive. Since, this is a newbie's guide I assumed most won't know how to run linux, but incase you do you can get a USB flash drive and run linux from it thus removing the need for hard drive all toghether. (thanks dystopiats)
GPU - Consult the list of hardware of hardware I posted above. Make sure you consider the KH/s/W ratio. To me the 290 is the best option but you can skimp down to 7950 if you like.
PSU - THIS IS BLOODY IMPORTANT. Most modern GPUs are power hungry so please make sure you are well within the limits of your power consumption.
MOTHERBOARD - Ok, so a pretty popular board right now is Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD3 and the ASRock 970 Extreme4. Some people are even going for Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD5 and even the mighty Gigabyte GA-990FXA-UD7 because it has more PCI-E slots. 6 to be exact. However you may not need that much. With risers you can get more shoved into less.
PCI-E RISERS - These are called risers. They come in x16 to x16 and x1 to x16 connections. Here is the general rule of thumb. This is very important. Always get a POWERED riser otherwise you will burn a hole in your MoBo. A powered rise as a molex connector so that additional power from PSU can be supplied.
When it comes to hardware I've provided the most basic knowledge you need. Also, take a look at cryptobader's website. This is very helpful. Please visit the mining section of Litecoin Forums and the litecoinmining subreddit for more indepth info.
Mining Software
Now that you have assembled your hardware now you need to get into a pool. But before you do that you need a mining software. There are many different ones but the one that is most popular is cgminer. Download it and make sure you read the README. It is a very robust piece of software. Please read this if you want to know more. (thanks BalzOnYer4Head)
Mining Pools
Now that your hardware and software is ready. I know nothing about solo mining other than the fact that you have to be very lucky and respectable amount of hashing power to decrypt a block. So it is better to join pools. I have been pool hopping for a bit and really liked give-me-coin previously known to the community as give-me-ltc. They have a nice mobile app and 0% pool fees. This is really a personal preference. Take a look at this list and try some yourself.
How do I connect to a pool?
Most pools will give you a tutorial on how to but the basics are as follows:
  • Signup for a pool
  • Create a worker for your account. Usually one worker per rig (Yes people have multiple rigs) is generally a good idea.
  • Create a .run file. Open up notepad and type cgminer.exe -o (address_to_the_miningpool:port_number) -u (yourusername.workername) -p (your_worker_password_if_you_made_one). Then File>Save As>runcgminer.run (Make sure the drop down is set to "All Files" and .txt document.) and save in the same folder as cgminer. That's it.
  • Double click on runcgminer.run (or whatever you named it) and have fun mining.
Mining Profitability
This game is not easy. If it was, practically everyone would be doing it. This is strictly a numbers game and there are calculations available that can help you determine your risk on your investments. 4 variables you need to consider when you are starting to mine:
Hardware cost: The cost of your physical hardware to run this whole operation.
Power: Measured in $/KwH is also known as the operating cost.
Difficulty rate: To put it in layman's terms the increase in difficulty is inversely proportional to amount of coin you can mine. The harder the difficulty the harder it is to mine coin. Right now difficulty is rising at about 18% per 3 days. This can and will change since all you miners are soon going to jump on the band wagon.
Your sanity: I am not going to tell you to keep calm and chive on because quiet frankly that is stupid. What I will tell you not to get too carried away. You will pull you hair out. Seriously.
Next thing you will need is a simple tool. A mining profitability calculator. I have two favourite ones.
coinwarz
I like this one cause it is simple. The fields are self explanatory. Try it.
bitcoinwisdom
I like this one because it is a more real life scenario calculator and more complicated one (not really). It also takes increasing difficulty into account.
Please note: This is the absolute basic info you need. If you have more questions feel free to ask and or google it!
More Below.
submitted by craeyon to litecoin [link] [comments]

10 Price Predictions for 10 Top Cryptocurrencies — Aug 2018

So, you’re sitting at your computer with money to invest.
You have made some good money already in the market, but you want more.
Cryptocurrencies reached a record **$800 billion in market value** then came crashing back down to earth and sit right around $200-$300 billion today.
The price movement of top currencies remains a mystery. But it doesn’t have to be.

THE PAIN OF UNCERTAINTY

Cryptocurrencies are volatile, irrational beasts.
Simple methods of forecasting grossly oveunderestimate the potential of a volatile currency.
For example, moving averages are used frequently to estimate future prices. Moving averages, however, suffer from many pitfalls that make them poor estimators of volatile markets.
Every great and successful investor has a plan. You will add one more tool to your arsenal today.

A BETTER METHOD FOR ESTIMATING CRYPTO PRICES

In my prior article about estimating the movement of Bitcoin Prices, I spoke of a method that is used frequently in the stock world to estimate prices.
This method is a Monte Carlo simulation using the geometric Brownian motion model.
I won’t cover off on the full methodology here, but essentially I am going to:
  1. Get historical daily prices for 10 top cryptocurrencies
  2. Calculate daily returns
  3. Simulate a day, month, and year
  4. Simulate a day, month, and year 1,000 times each
By the end of the article, you will have the following:
A note on forecasting, simulations, and recommendations: Monte Carlo simulations are to be used as guidelines and tools, not as gospel. I am not offering financial or investing advice.

BITCOIN

What is Bitcoin?

You know what Bitcoin is, stop it.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of Bitcoin fell between $3,959, and $12,626 with a median of $6,970 over a 1-month time period.

BITCOIN CASH

What is Bitcoin Cash?

From the Bitcoin Cash project website:
“Bitcoin Cash is peer-to-peer electronic cash for the Internet. It is fully decentralized, with no central bank and requires no trusted third parties to operate.”
Really, it was an additional currency that was created after a fork from Bitcoin core.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of Bitcoin Cash fell between $253, and $1,501 with a median of $624 over a 1-month time period.

ETHEREUM

What is Ethereum?

Ethereum is a decentralized platform that runs smart contracts: applications that run exactly as programmed without any possibility of downtime, censorship, fraud or third party interference.
Ethereum has been busy recently. Multiple steps have been pushed in motion for the upcoming large change — reaching a new consensus method.
From Jordan Daniel at ethnews.com:
Ethereum’s Byzantium hard fork was only one half of a two-part process designed to transition the decentralized application platform to a new method for reaching consensus — proof-of-stake. The next hard fork, called Constantinople, was recently discussed during an Ethereum core developer meeting and could include Vitalik Buterin’s Casper update.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of Ethereum fell between $200, and $827 with a median of $405 over a 1-month time period.

EOS

What is EOS?

EOS is a blockchain-based, decentralized operating system, designed to support commercial-scale decentralized applications by providing all of the necessary core functionality, enabling businesses to build blockchain applications in a way similar to web-based applications.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of EOS fell between $2.48, and $19.92 with a median of $6.78 over a 1-month time period.

LITECOIN

What is Litecoin?

Litecoin’s claim to fame is faster transaction processing times. It uses a scrypt-based mining proof-of-work algorithm to target the regular computers and GPUs most people already have.
The ability to target regular computers and GPU’s happens to be a huge differentiator from the crowded mining population of Bitcoin.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of Litecoin fell between $34.45, and $131.88 with a median of $67.53 over a 1-month time period.

RIPPLE

What is Ripple?

Ripple is a system created for banks to enable immediate payments and lower costs.
The vision of the Ripple creators is to allow a bank transfer in a few seconds (instead of the horribly annoying 2–3 business days).
Of note, is that Ripple is a U.S. based company. From the xrphodor blog:
Ripple is a US-based company. Why is this an important point to consider? A US-based company like Ripple is subject to some very stringent laws regarding securities trading and money transmission. These include requirements that define how Ripple might interact with crypto markets and both institutional and retail crypto traders.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of Ripple fell between $0.13, and $1.05 with a median of $0.37 over a 1-month time period.

STELLAR

What is Stellar?

Stellar is a platform that connects banks, payments systems, and people. Integrate to move money quickly, reliably, and at almost no cost.
XLM is a completely decentralized consensus platform. It is designed to support any type of currency. It has a built in decentralized exchange that can be used to trade any type of currency or asset.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of Stellar fell between $0.11, and $0.81 with a median of $0.29 over a 1-month time period.

IOTA

What is IOTA?

IOTA is a public distributed ledger that stores transactions in a directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure, called a Tangle. The Tangle is used in place of the blockchain structure commonly used by other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.
IOTA is a cryptocurrency designed specifically for the Internet of Things (IoT) that can be used for the secure sale and sharing of data streams.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of IOTA fell between $0.24, and $1.39 with a median of $0.58 over a 1-month time period.

QTUM

What is QTUM?

Qtum is an open source Blockchain project that is developed by the Singapore-based Qtum Foundation. Qtum is a hybrid blockchain application platform.
Qtum’s core technology combines a fork of bitcoin core, an Account Abstraction Layer allowing for multiple Virtual Machines including the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) and Proof-of-Stake consensus aimed at tackling industry use cases.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of QTUM fell between $1.51, and $15.34 with a median of $4.89 over a 1-month time period.

NEO

What is NEO?

NEO (formerly known as AntShares) is a smart asset platform and the first open source public blockchain project in China. Smart assets are the combination of smart blockchain contracts and digital assets.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Stats

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of NEO fell between $9.67, and $52.02 with a median of $23.49 over a 1-month time period.

DASH

What is Dash?

From CoinLib:
Dash (formerly known as Darkcoin and XCoin) is an open source peer-to-peer cryptocurrency. On top of Bitcoin’s feature set, it currently offers instant transactions (InstantSend), private transactions (PrivateSend) and operates a self-governing and self-funding model that enables the Dash network to pay individuals and businesses to perform work that adds value to the network.
Dash’s decentralized governance and budgeting system makes it a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO).

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of Dash fell between $15.23, and $3,125 with a median of $198 over a 1-month time period.

BONUS: MONERO

What is Monero?

Monero attempts to solve privacy and fungibility issues that persist in Bitcoin.
Part of the algorithm for Monero automatically mixes transactions with previous transactions and does this by implementing ring signatures.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Stats

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of Monero fell between $24.20, and $508.99 with a median of $115.44 over a 1-month time period.

BONUS: Zcash

What is Zcash?

From the Blockchainhub infographic:
Zcash is a permissionless cryptocurrency that can fully protect the privacy of transactions using zero-knowledge cryptography.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
Simulation Statistics

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of Zcash fell between $49.34, and $419.23 with a median of $147.27 over a 1-month time period.

Bonus: CARDANO

What is Cardano?

From Coincheckup:
Cardano is a decentralised public blockchain and cryptocurrency project and is fully open source. Cardano is developing a smart contract platform which seeks to deliver more advanced features than any protocol previously developed.

One-Month Simulation

Graph of one-month simulation

One-Month Simulated 1,000 Times

Graph of one-month simulated 1,000 times

Simulation Statistics

Here are the results of simulating Daily, Monthly, and Yearly coin prices 1,000 times each.
[Simulation Statistics}(https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2324/1*aAhJ6BvgGTvHNqESN1dzQw.png)

Verdict

In 95% of model simulations, the price of Cardano fell between $0.04, and $0.42 with a median of $0.13 over a 1-month time period.

YOUR VERY OWN FORECASTING TOOL

Since i’m so nice, I went ahead and created a forecasting tool for you to use.
Example of the workbook in action

SERVICES USED:

  1. Microsoft Excel 2016 for Windows or Mac, or Excel Online
  2. Cryptosheets Excel Add-in
  3. Cryptocompare API
Full disclosure: The Excel add-in has a free tier with a limited 100 requests, and a paid upgrade option past that. However, no one should be refused access on the basis of money (especially true for students and less fortunate). Send me a message, and I will make sure you are not left in the dark.

A NOTE ON SECURITY

Users have expressed hesitation about downloading an Excel workbook on their main computer, so I will attempt to ease those concerns:

WHAT IT PULLS:

GETTING THE SPREADSHEET TO WORK FOR YOU

Click this link to download the workbook
  1. Install the Cryptosheets add-in for Excel
  2. Log-in to Cryptosheets using Google, or your regular e-mail
  3. Upon successful log-in, refresh the Cryptocompare pull

UPDATING TO DIFFERENT CRYPTOCURRENCIES

For a quick demonstration, see here

TROUBLESHOOTING

When I open the add-in, I get a white screen…why? Most likely this is due to an ad blocker (such as uBlock Origin or Bitdefender). On Windows, the add-in relies on Internet Explorer stability to function properly. Make sure nothing is blocking Internet Explorer.
My add-in is stuck in a “Loading” loop…how do I fix it? See the tutorial here to fix: How to fix a loading loop

CONCLUSION

Whether you are investing in Bitcoin, Ethereum, or SpankCoin, it is imperative to have a plan. Most notably, a worst-case scenario.
The Monte Carlo simulation is a fantastic way to get a range of prices for a cryptocurrency. And after reading this, you can see how the final values change drastically depending on what you are looking at.
I urge you to download the sheet and try your own hand at simulating different coins.
Cheers, and happy hunting
Click this link to download the workbook

RELATED POSTS

Financial Modeling for Cryptocurrencies: A CoinMarketCap Spreadsheet That Doesn’t Suck
Introducing Cryptosheets: Real-time Excel Add-in for Cryptocurrencies
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